The national tracking polls released on
Thursday had a rare moment of apparent convergence, with most showing
Republican nominee Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by small
single-digit margins. That uptick was not large enough, for the moment,
to undo Obama's edge in the battleground states.
Much of this day-to-day fluctuation in the daily tracking polls is
random noise, but for one day, at least, the pattern tipped slightly in
Romney's favor. Three of the six daily national tracking polls released
on Thursday ticked in Romney's direction, while one moved a point toward
Obama and two were unchanged.
Whatever the reason, the shifts helped produce something of a
consensus. Six of the eight new polls gave Romney an edge of between 1
and 3 percentage points, and three of the best-known brand names --
Gallup, ABC/Washington Post and Rasmussen Reports -- all converged on a
3-point Romney lead.
The HuffPost Pollster
tracking model,
which combines both national and statewide polls, gives Romney a slight
edge in the estimated national popular vote (47.3 percent to 46.9
percent) as of this writing (the estimates update each day as new polls
become available). That's a slightly smaller advantage than the
RealClearPolitics simple average of recent national polls or the
classic Pollster trend chart have estimated (based on national polls alone), because the Pollster tracking model incorporates state-level data and also
corrects for pollsters' "house effects"
(consistent differences in the results for individual pollsters). That
said, the differences between the different aggregation methods is
slight. As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics average of Romney's
margin is just 0.5 percentage points higher than the Pollster estimate.
Thursday also brought a batch of new polls in the battleground
states, including a half-dozen sponsored by interest groups supportive
of the Obama campaign, such as Project New America and Health Care for
America Now. The tracking model includes this data (as well as a set of
state polls released last week by the conservative group Let Freedom
Ring), but discounts for the house effects associated with each.
The models indicate, for example, that Project New America pollster
Grove Insight demonstrates a statistical bias of roughly 1 percentage
point (0.96) in Obama's favor. So it interprets their
new poll in Colorado,
which gives Obama a 3-point advantage (46 percent to 43 percent) as if
it had shown just a 1-point Obama edge (45 percent to 44 percent).
That adjusted result is roughly comparable to another new
Colorado survey released on Thursday by NBC News, the Wall Street Journal and Marist College that has the candidates tied at 48 percent. Not surprisingly, the
model's current estimate of the standings in Colorado
is a 1-point Obama edge (48.0 percent to 47.0 percent) as of this
writing -- roughly the same narrow margin that has persisted in Colorado
for the past two weeks.
Another
Marist/NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in
Nevada
gives Obama a 3 percentage point advantage (50 percent to 47 percent),
just slightly lower than the tracking model's current estimate of a 3.3
percent lead (49.6 percent to 46.3 percent), as of this writing.
In
Virginia, four new polls were released on
Thursday with results that ranged from a 2-point Romney lead reported in
both a live interviewer poll from
Fox News and an automated telephone poll from
Rasmussen Reports, to a 5-point Obama advantage on an automated
Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey
sponsored by Health Care for America. The model's current estimate
based on all of the recent Virginia polls gives Obama a 1-point edge
(48.0 percent to 47.0 percent) as of this writing.
Across all of the battleground states, the polls combine to show the
same narrow Obama advantages that have held for the last two weeks in
key battleground states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa and Ohio. If these
leads hold, they would collectively give Obama the 277 electoral votes
needed to win, when combined with other states in which he leads by
larger margins.
The state estimates produced by the HuffPost Pollster tracking model
do take the national polls into account, and for the moment, at least,
yesterday's collective uptick for Romney in the national tracking polls
has not put a dent in Obama's edge in battleground states. But if that
upward trend continues, the margins in these states will narrow and
could open up a path to a Romney electoral vote majority.
Credit : Huffington Post